Research Gaps

There is considerable uncertainty about the timing, extent and severity of a potential outbreak, yet countries must make critical decisions about how to defend against a potential outbreak of HPAI. If an outbreak occurs, policy makers must take effective action to eliminate the disease and prevent further spread. Such action will involve direct costs associated with the eradication measures, as well as indirect costs that accrue to poultry producers and infected people. The rural poor, whose livelihoods disproportionately depend on poultry, may carry a large share of these costs. In light of this, a number of research questions are of particular relevance to poor families in developing countries:

• What are the pathways in which HPAI can spread and what is the likelihood that it will spread by each identified pathway?
• What would be the economic impact on the poor if HPAI is not controlled?
• Are there short–run and long-run distributional differences? Do these differ depending on spread mechanisms?
• What is the epidemiological impact of control options and how does this translate into economic and livelihoods benefits for the poor?
• What is the connection between actions, risk, and cost consequences of HPAI control strategies on different stakeholder and wealth groups?
• What are the risks and economic costs associated with adopting alternative HPAI control strategies?
• Can optimal short-run and long-run strategies be identified for controlling the spread of HPAI, depending on the specific vector(s) responsible for its spread?
• What type of decision tools need to be created to communicate the distributional risk-risk trade-offs of controlling HPAI?